Wheat Market Overview: US Growers Overcome Declining Prices and Supply Challenges
A look at the global and domestic wheat markets, and how US wheat growers are finding new profit opportunities
Over the past few years, global uncertainties and weather challenges have impacted the trade, price and supply of staple cereal crops. This has created mounting pressure for farmers across the United States. One example is the wheat market. Wheat has faced domestic challenges including drought and declining acreage, and international challenges such as the collapse of the Black Sea Initiative.
The previous uncertainty over exports from countries like Ukraine and Russia initially created a surge in US wheat prices. However, that spike has since leveled out as overall wheat supply increased. Wheat prices are now projected to be lower than previous years.
Despite declining prices, wheat remains an important rotational crop for US farmers, particularly in regions that benefit from winter wheat’s soil health benefits and resilience in harsh conditions. According to the U.S. Wheat Associates, the 2024 season stands out as the “most promising” in recent years. Many US wheat farmers have found a solution to boost profits despite tighter margins.
Read on to learn more about the overall wheat market and the new approach US farmers are taking.
Global Wheat Production Snapshot
Wheat is the second most widely grown cereal crop in the world behind corn. The global demand for wheat is on the rise, with both global feed and residual use increasing overall wheat consumption.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations forecasts global wheat production in 2024 will be 791.4 million tons—a nearly 3 million ton average increase year over year. Global wheat consumption is projected to reach 793.3 million tons, surpassing anticipated production supply.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, the United States is the fifth largest global producer of wheat.
The five top wheat-producing countries in order of production are:
- China
- European Union
- India
- Russia
- United States
Despite 5% lower overall wheat acreage, U.S. wheat production is expected to reach 1.9 billion bushels—the highest level in five years. Winter wheat yields are expected to increase by 49.5 bushels per acre. This boost is largely driven by improved weather conditions, better moisture levels and increased yields.
US Wheat Prices Decline
The suspension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, along with other global supply challenges, severely disrupted wheat trade in recent years. These disruptions initially caused US wheat prices to spike by 8.5%. However, this spike has since leveled out as global supply increased.
According to the USDA, farm-level wheat prices were down 29.4% in July 2024 compared to that time last year. The 2024-2025 season-average farm price for wheat in the US is expected to be $6, down from $7.10 for the 2023-2024 marketing year and a record $8.85 per bushel for the 2022-2023 season-average. The 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 season-average farm prices were $5.05 and $7.63 per bushel, respectively.
With declining wheat prices shrinking profit margins, US wheat farmers are turning to new approaches to ensure higher yields per acre.
The Collapse of the Black Sea Grain Deal
Historically, Ukraine has been commonly referred to as the “European breadbasket.” The term refers to a region or country known for its significant agricultural productivity, particularly in wheat and other grain crops.
Prior to the Ukraine / Russia war, Ukraine produced more than 60 million tons of grain and accounted for about 10% of the global wheat exports.
However, in July 2023, Russia halted a deal to allow grain to flow from the Ukraine to other countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.
Since then, Ukraine’s wheat harvest has fallen, with an estimated 22.3 million tons for the 2024-2025 market season. Overall grain harvests in the country are expected to be down as much as 50% to pre-war levels.
This drop in trade and supply has caused fluctuation in both domestic and global wheat prices, as farmers around the world push wheat yields in attempts to cover the deficit.
Opportunity and Challenge for US Wheat Farmers
US farmers face both an opportunity and a challenge in maximizing their yields despite lower acreage, varied weather conditions and shrinking profit margins.
Wheat ranks third among U.S. field crops in total planted acreage and production, just behind corn and soybeans. Chronic drought has been a major ongoing issue over the past three years for winter wheat production in areas like Kansas, America’s top growing state. In other states, such as North Dakota, an excess of wet weather conditions has wreaked havoc on spring wheat production. However, 2024 growing conditions show much more promise due to warmer weather and improved moisture.
While overall acres of planted wheat and production have declined steadily over the past few decades, global demand continues to maintain steady growth. This signals a need to keep yields of this staple crop high without compromising quality and efficiency. Wheat farmers across the country have found success doing this by adding one simple input to their planting.
US Wheat Farmers Find 95% Success with Agricultural Biologicals
In addressing the challenge of increased production, more US wheat farmers are exploring innovative solutions to enhance their crop performance. Many have found success using US-produced agricultural biologicals specifically designed to boost wheat productivity.
Locus Agriculture (Locus AG) has developed biologicals featuring vital microbes, including a beneficial bacteria strain and fungal strain, that are precision-targeted to enhance wheat performance.
These strains are third-party tested and proven to:
- Expand early root development
- Enhance crop nutrient uptake and absorption
- Increase nutrients in wheat tissue
- Create a better wheat stand
Read more: how to create the best wheat stand before winter dormancy
Locus AG’s biologicals are proven to increase wheat production by an average of 5%, or 4.1 bushels per acre. The results were consistent over three years across key wheat growing states, with a 95% success rate. This boost in productivity translates to an additional $24.60 in revenue per acre (at anticipated $6 season average), giving farmers an economic edge over shrinking profit margins.
Spotlight: US Wheat Farmer Scott Scheimer’s Success Story
One such farmer benefiting from the use of biologicals is Scott Scheimer, a seasoned wheat grower from Colorado.
“The soil [biologicals] are what turned me on to Locus AG,” says Scheimer. “We’re really shifting our input dollars, especially for phosphorus, and allocating it to the Locus AG products.”
Scheimer’s success serves as an inspiring example for other wheat growers seeking to enhance their yields and profitability. Read about his experience using Locus AG biologicals across multiple seasons:
Recent events related to the global wheat supply present a unique opportunity for US growers to meet the rising demand for domestic production and achieve profitable outcomes, with increased ROI from higher wheat prices.
By embracing specific vital strains of agricultural biologicals, farmers can bolster domestic wheat production, in addition to other cereal crops.
In doing so, they can make a significant impact on the global wheat market while enhancing their own financial security. US farmers are being called to once again, help to shape food security for, not only their nation, but also for the world.
Optimize Your Wheat Harvest with Locus AG Biologicals
With declining wheat prices, U.S. farmers should squeeze every bushel they can out of their acres. Locus AG’s Rhizolizer® Duo for Wheat & Cereals is proven to boost wheat yields and ensure better wheat stands. This yield increase has been consistent through three years and more than a dozen trials in key wheat-growing states. The results are statistically significant, providing a 95% confidence level that the results will be experienced in farmer fields.
Learn More: Locus AG’s Biological Products – Rhizolizer Duo for Wheat & Cereals
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